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Seismic hazard reappraisal from combined structural geology, geomorphology and cosmic ray exposure dating analyses: the Eastern Precordillera thrust system (NW Argentina)

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Summary. Because earthquakes on large active thrust or reverse faults are not always accompanied with surface rupture, paleoseismological estimation of their associated seismic hazard is a difficult task. To improve the seismic hazard assessments in the Andean foreland of western Argentina (San Juan Province), this paper proposes a novel approach that combines structural geology, geomorphology and exposure age dating. The Eastern Precordillera of San Juan is probably one of the most active zones of thrust tectonics in the world. We concentrated on one major regional active reverse structure, the 145 km long Villicúm-Pedernal thrust, where this methodology allows one to: (1) constrain the Quaternary stress regime by inversion of geologically determined slip vectors on minor or major fault planes; (2) analyse the geometry and the geomorphic characteristics of the Villicúm-Pedernal thrust; and (3) estimate uplift and shortening rates through determination of in situ-produced 10Be cosmic ray exposure (CRE) ages of abandoned and uplifted alluvial terraces. From a structural point of view, the Villicúm-Pedernal thrust can be subdivided into three thrust portions constituting major structural segments separated by oblique N40°E-trending fault branches. Along the three segments, inversion of fault slip data shows that the development of the Eastern Precordillera between 31°S and 32°S latitude is dominated by a pure compressive reverse faulting stress regime characterized by a N110°± 10°E-trending compressional stress axis (σ1). A geomorphic study realized along the 18 km long Las Tapias fault segment combined with CRE ages shows that the minimum shortening rate calculated over the previous ∼20 kyr is at least of the order of 1 mm yr−1. An earthquake moment tensor sum has also been used to calculate a regional shortening rate caused by seismic deformation. This analysis of the focal solutions available for the last 23 yr shows that the seismic contribution may be three times greater than the shortening rate we determined for the Las Tapias fault (i.e. ∼3 mm yr−), suggesting that the San Juan region may have experienced a seismic crisis during the 20th century. Moreover, the ramp that controls the development of the Eastern Precordillera appears to be one of the main seismic sources in the San Juan area, particularly the 65 km long Villicúm-Las Tapias segment. A first-order evaluation of the seismic hazard parameters shows that this thrust segment can produce a maximum earthquake characterized by a moment magnitude of ∼7.3 (±0.1) and a recurrence interval of 2.4 (±1.5) kyr. This part of the Villicúm-Pedernal ramp may have ruptured during the Ms= 7.4, 1944 San Juan earthquake producing very few surface ruptures and only distributed flexural slip deformation on to the Neogene foreland bedding planes between the Eastern Precordillera and Pie de Palo.

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