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| - Estimating Nutrients and Chlorophylla Relationships in Finnish Lakes
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| - We model the response of chlorophyll aa surrogate forthe phytoplankton community volumeto variations inlake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN)concentrations. The model is fitted to a large cross-sectional data set from the Finnish Lake monitoring network.The objective is to support the Finnish Government inidentifying management actions to achieve compliance ofthe chlorophyll a concentration standard with a givenconfidence level and to provide tools for the estimation ofcritical (target) loads for nutrients in monitored lakes.We develop a Bayesian hierarchical linear model whichcombines advantages of both the currently preferred non-hierarchical lake-type-specific linear model and lake-specific linear model fitted separately using data from asingle lake. The hierarchical model is less biased at lake-level compared to the lake type model. In contrast tothe lake model, it predicts the lake specific chlorophyll aresponse to nutrients outside the lake specific observationalrange. The hierarchical model is used to calculateprobabilities of chlorophyll a concentration exceeding thestandard under different nitrogen and phosphorusconcentration combinations. These probabilities can beused to estimate acceptable nitrogen−phosphorusconcentration combinations by a lake manager. We discusshow our study can be useful in implementing the EuropeanWater Framework Directive.
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