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À propos de : Modeling of Branching Ratio Uncertainty in Chemical Networks by Dirichlet Distributions        

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  • Modeling of Branching Ratio Uncertainty in Chemical Networks by Dirichlet Distributions
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  • Validation of complex chemical models relies increasingly on uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysiswith Monte Carlo sampling methods. The utility and accuracy of this approach depend on the proper definitionof probability density functions for the uncertain parameters of the model. Taking into account the existingcorrelations between input parameters is essential to a reliable uncertainty budget for the model outputs. Weaddress here the problem of branching ratios between product channels of a reaction, which are correlated bythe unit value of their sum. We compare the uncertainties on predicted time-dependent and equilibrium speciesconcentrations due to input samples, either uncorrelated or explicitly correlated by a Dirichlet distribution.The method is applied to the case of Titan ionospheric chemistry, with the aim of estimating the effect ofbranching ratio correlations on the uncertainty balance of equilibrium densities in a complex model.
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